麻豆原创

The number of people living in poverty in the United States has grown by 8 million since May, finds a new study co-authored by Teachers College economist and researchers at Columbia University鈥檚 .

The number had fallen by four million at the outset of the COVID pandemic because of the $2 trillion emergency Cares Act, but, as reported in , it has grown in recent months after the expiration of the CARES Act鈥檚 unemployment supplement of $600 per week.

The report also finds that 鈥渋ncreases in monthly poverty rates have been particularly acute for Black and Hispanic individuals, as well as for children.鈥�

鈥淕iven projections that high unemployment rates may persist throughout the next year, additional income transfers are likely necessary to blunt further increases in poverty,鈥� write the report鈥檚 authors.

[Read the full paper, which Matsudaira published with Zachary Parolin and Megan Curran, Post-Doctoral Research Scientists at Columbia University鈥檚 Center on Poverty & Social Policy; Jane Waldfogel, an affiliated faculty member at the Center who is Compton Foundation Centennial Professor of Social Work for the Prevention of Children鈥檚 and Youth Problems at the Columbia School of Social Work; and Christopher Wimer, the Center鈥檚 Co-Director.]

鈥淭he recent rise in poverty has occurred despite an improving job market since May, an indication that the economy had been rebounding too slowly to offset the lost benefits,鈥� reports the Times. 鈥淎nd now the economy is showing new signs of deceleration, amid layoffs, a surge in coronavirus cases and deadlocked talks in Washington over new stimulus.鈥�

A key motivation behind our work is that in a time of upheaval like we鈥檙e in right now, having a poverty-rate estimate from a full year ago, when the nation was at the peak of a historic economic expansion, is not providing policymakers with the information they need to respond to an evolving crisis.

鈥擩ordan Matsudaira

A major innovation of the new study is the researchers鈥� development of a method to make high-frequency estimates of the poverty rate based on families鈥� monthly resources.

鈥淭he government only releases its official statistics once a year, in September, which creates a big time-lag between its numbers and what鈥檚 happening in the present moment,鈥� says Matsudaira, Associate Professor of Economics & Education Policy, who served from 2013 to 2015 as Chief Economist on President Obama鈥檚 Council of Economic Advisers. 鈥淪o, for example, the report the government released last month was based on numbers from 2019. A key motivation behind our work is that in a time of upheaval like we鈥檙e in right now, having a poverty-rate estimate from a full year ago, when the nation was at the peak of a historic economic expansion, is not providing policymakers with the information they need to respond to an evolving crisis.鈥�

The most important takeaway from our study is that the expiration of the Cares Act has caused an uptick in people with resources below the poverty line. We need action from Congress to help those people.

鈥擩ordan Matsudaira 

Matsudaira, who is also Senior Research Scholar at 麻豆原创鈥檚 , says that the new study uses a variety of statistical modeling methods to 鈥渢ake a relatively limited set of up-to-date high-frequency signals of how the economy is performing, match them with year-old information about people鈥檚 poverty status, and then make an estimate of where they stand now.鈥� The study also 鈥渓ayers in some simulations in order to model the impact of polices evolving in real time 鈥� for example, changes in unemployment insurance.鈥�

The government considers an urban family of four poor if its annual income falls below $28,170. 

鈥淲hen you do this kind of work, you are constantly reminded of the precariousness of people鈥檚 ability to make ends meet,鈥� says Matsudaira. 鈥淭he most important takeaway from our study is that the expiration of the Cares Act has caused an uptick in people with resources below the poverty line. We need action from Congress to help those people.鈥�